Numbers Don’t Lie by Vaclav Smil. This could be a good book but still needs proper editing. I intend to offer a positive opinion of this book, and I do think well of it; however, it currently reads as a work in progress.
Apparently, this book originated as a collection of short articles or essays previously published elsewhere, and the author has now assembled several pieces into a book. I am okay with that, but the manuscript still needs to be fully fleshed out.
The book covers a wide variety of technological challenges for our society, including issues like population, globalization, energy, and food. All these themes are important, and I believe the author’s aim is to condense a few lines of thought into a guide for future development.
The word “Numbers” in the title reflects the intent to offer a quantitative point of view for comparing various themes, such as how much food we will need to sustain our future population or the estimated energy consumption required for transportation and communications. While this sort of information is often readily available online, the author effectively puts these numbers in context, enabling a better quantitative understanding alongside a more comprehensive and qualitative view of present and future technological challenges.
One of the first ideas in the book is that infant mortality may be a better indicator of a country’s quality of life than GDP. The author argues that GDP can create a misleading sense of wealth, as it increases with spending on hospital admissions, policing due to violence, and so forth. In contrast, infant mortality points to good healthcare, sanitary conditions, and support for disadvantaged families.
Another interesting idea in the book is the author’s framing of vaccination, which is highly relevant today. Vaccination is presented as a powerful investment, with research showing a benefit-cost ratio as high as 44 times, or 4400% in returns. These benefits come from savings in healthcare costs, lost wages, and reduced productivity due to illness and death. It’s no wonder the largest investor in the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is Warren Buffet.
WWI is considered the first truly global conflict, significant for transforming warfare from prior centuries. During WWI, the first diesel-powered submarines were used to attack ships, telecommunications were used to coordinate battles, and the first battle-ready aircraft carrier was launched. These war technologies remain relevant more than 100 years later.
Although the development of synthetic ammonia was initially focused on producing fertilizers, wartime blockades of raw materials against Germany led to ammonia being used in explosives production. This capability turned WWI into an even more terrifying global conflict and established industries that remain relevant in the 21st century.
Another theme in the book compares the IT and manufacturing industries. For example, Facebook’s market capitalization is three times that of Toyota, the world’s leading car manufacturer, yet Toyota has almost nine times more employees than Facebook.
The chapter on machines and devices is excellent. The main point is that the 1880s created much of our modern world. The claim is that many recent inventions, such as the internet and electric vehicles, are less revolutionary than some might believe.
Some of the most notable inventions of the 1880s include the internal combustion engine, the bicycle, the ballpoint pen, electric motors, electric street railways, the electric elevator, The Wall Street Journal, and the phonograph. These inventions truly transformed our world. Meanwhile, more recent inventions, like the internet and electric vehicles, can be seen as improved or extended versions of these past innovations.
However, in my opinion, the internet has fundamentally changed how we interact. For example, consider socialism as a doctrine. One of the core ideas of this movement was that, historically, the bourgeois class controlled the means of production, making the working class overly dependent on a few powerful individuals, which led to the emergence of socialism. Today, however, ordinary people can run successful businesses online without relying on state-owned means of production.
Mobile micro-nuclear reactors are currently in use in Russian Arctic cities. These reactors produce heat through nuclear fission and are an interesting option for Arctic cities, which are expected to grow as northern cargo routes open.